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World demand for oil will increase by more than 16% until 2040

The OPEC predicted today that the world demand of crude will increase more than 16% until 2040, when it will total about 111 million barrels per day (mbd) and, although the fight against the change climate will reduce consumption of "black gold", estimated necessary to invest 10.5 billion dollars in the sector.

Vienna, Nov 7 (EFE) .- OPEC predicted today that the world demand for crude will increase by more than 16% until 2040, when it will total some 111 million barrels per day (mbd) and, although the fight against climate change will reduce the consumption of "black gold", estimated necessary to invest 10.5 billion dollars in the sector.

In his report "Oil World Forecast 2040", presented today in Vienna, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) specifies that in the next five years the annual growth of oil demand will be an average of 1.2 mbd.

The calculation implies that in 2022 the planet will consume 102.3 mbd or 6.9 mbd more than in 2016, but the growth will slow down to about 0.3 between 2035 and 2040 due to the "energy strategies" planned to fight against global warming, explains the organization.

The lower rate also reflects a deceleration of the world situation and the growth of the population of the planet in the last five years of the period studied.

The report predicts that the demand for renewables -the wind, photovoltaic, solar thermal and geothermal energy- is the one that will register the highest growth rates, with an annual average of 6.8%, much higher than the expected increase in consumption of oil and coal, of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively.

Despite this, OPEC points out that oil will still be the most used energy source, with a share of 27%. %, followed by natural gas (25%), while renewables, although they will rise 4 percentage points, will still occupy a modest place in the global energy basket of 2040, with a 5.5 %.

According to the document, to meet the demand only for oil that is expected until 2040, investments in the petroleum sector of the entire planet will be necessary for a volume of 10.5 billion dollars.

All these calculations are based on the expectation of an annual growth of the world economy of an average of 3.5% until 2040, which includes a phase of acceleration between 2016 and 2022.

In addition, OPEC experts have assumed that there will be a significant increase in the world's population by 2040, while reducing poverty. energy ".

Regarding the supply of oil, they expect that the extractions of non-OPEC producers will rise by 6.8 mbd before reaching a peak of 63.8 mbd in 2027 and decline to 60.4 mbd by 2040.

The bulk of that competing offer will come from the United States, with an increase of 3.8 mbd only in the next five years, mainly from oil But in the long term, OPEC sees increasing dependence on crude from its fourteen members: between 2020 and 2040 it estimates that it will have to pump an additional 7.7 mbd, thus it will expand its participation in the world market to 37%, from the current 34%.

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