Santiago de Chile, Nov 16 (EFE) .- The Government elected in Chile next Sunday, or a possible second round, will receive an economy that recovers the pace of growth, unlike what happened four years ago, when Michelle Bachelet had to face an adverse scenario.
The rise in the price of copper, the improvement of the global economy and optimism of the market for the eventual triumph of the conservative Sebastián Piñera in the presidential elections are at the base of that optimism.
The authorities envisage "green shoots", while the analysts improve their forecasts after several years of pessimism due to the fall in prices of raw materials, and the decrease in investment and domestic consumption.
The crisis economic growth and the collapse of commodity prices have hit Chile in recent years, an open economy based largely on international trade in goods and services.
In March 2014, Michelle Bachelet began her second term with a slowdown in growth: 6.1% in 2011, 5.3% in 2012 and 4% in 2013. to the one of its first Government (2006-2010), that in the first two grew 5,7 and 5,2%, respectively., to fall in 2008 by the crisis.
However, a a rapid recovery for 2010, the first year of the Government of Sebastiá Piñera, when GDP grew by 5.8%.
Investment for reconstruction after the February earthquake 2010, with damages amounting to 30,000 million dollars, and a sustained rise in copper prices, which remained above three dollars per pound, were decisive factors in the recovery.
In 2014, when Bachelet returned to the Government, nothing was the same. in an expansion of 1.5%.
Entrepreneurial distrust of a government that did not aim for growth as its main objective, but rather reforms of social content to improve income distribution, also contributed to the slow pace of the economy.
And now that Piñera leads the polls, according to his followers, he contributes to improving economic expectations. Bachelet is debited. The deficit caused the rating agencies Standard & Poors and Fitch to downgrade the Chilean sovereign debt rating last July, while Moddy's kept it at "Aa3" (high quality), but the outlook fell to "negative".
Public debt closed the second quarter of this year at 23.8% of GDP. internal, 49,091.6 million (the total external debt of the country as of June 30 was 168.706 million dollars).
On the positive side, unemployment has remained stable, below 7%, and inflation, limited, with a calculation for this year of 2%.
Recent indicators show an improvement in consumption and investment data, while companies have increased profits and sales of new vehicles are growing at a rate of 20% year-on-year.
The price of copper has also increased by 25% year-on-year so far in 2017 and keeps around $ 3.1 per pound, which augurs better times for tax revenues, every time that every dollar in the average annual price is 45 million dollars in taxes.
The Central Bank projects for 2018 an increase in GDP of between 2.5 and 3.5%; In November, private companies increased their outlook from 2.9% to 3%.
Everything points to the fact that the economy will not be an untamed foal for the government next year, when - as he said this week, President Bachelet - we will not have to settle for a 3% growth.